+22% YTD: Portfolio Exceeds Expectations (Q3 2026 Review)

After a blistering 17% return in the first half of the year, momentum continued into the third quarter as my portfolio charged ahead to a 21.7% year-to-date (YTD) gain.

The drivers behind these numbers, however, have shifted.

Prefer to listen to this analysis while you multitask? Stream the companion audio here, or scroll down to read.

While my SG portfolio rescued the first quarter, and local semiconductor plays led the charge in the second, it was the US portfolio that spearheaded the rally this time around.

My SG portfolio continues to carry a higher overall return at 26.1% YTD, remaining virtually flat compared to three months ago.

With local banks rallying hard over the past quarter, my SG portfolio has not only conceded its double-digit lead over the SPDR Straits Times Index ETF (SGX: ES3), but is now trailing the index.

If this momentum holds, it will mark the third consecutive year the STI finishes with an annual return above 20%—a truly remarkable run!

On the other hand, my US holdings rallied nearly 13% over the past quarter, swinging from a 2.5% loss in June to a 10.2% gain today.

While it still lags the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), the gap has narrowed to low single digits, putting me within striking distance to potentially overtake it next quarter.

As much as I enjoy beating them, trailing either benchmark doesn’t bother me. They serve more as reference points than targets.

Instead, my overarching goal remains simple: achieve an annualised return of at least 10% over the long run. So how can I be upset when this year’s return has way exceeded my expectation?

Now, let’s zoom in to examine individual stock performance.

Top 5 Stocks: The Winners Keep Winning

Unsurprisingly, the top five stocks held on to their commanding leads from mid-year.

After gapping up in the second quarter to reflect strong forward demand, the three local semiconductor manufacturers—AEM Holdings (SGX: AWX), UMS Integration (SGX: 558), and Micro-Mechanics (SGX: 5DD)—have largely traded within ranges over the past quarter.

The pull-back in AEM’s percentage gain might look scary on paper, but that is simply because it’s measured off a low cost base. Over the past three months, the stock generally traded between S$9 and S$11, depending on the flavour of AI-related headlines.

Beyond the semiconductor trio, both OCBC (SGX: O39) and Arista Networks (NYSE: ANET) cemented their positions at the top with explosive momentum, each roughly doubling their gains over the past quarter.

Boosted by a phenomenal 51% year-over-year surge in Q2 non-interest income, OCBC’s share price continues to reflect market optimism around its accelerating profits.

Similarly, the market reacted positively to Arista’s latest quarterly results, where it reported a strong 12% quarter-on-quarter sales jump and once again raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to US$12.6 billion.

Having invested in Arista for over eight years, I am accustomed to management’s historically cautious guidance. When they show this level of confidence, it signals strong, clear visibility of demand on the ground.

If you are looking for DBS (SGX: D05)—it’s just round the corner, at #6. DBS definitely did well too, with a 44% YTD return. But competition for the top 5 spots is tough this year…very tough.

Bottom 5 Stocks: The Losers Don’t Always Stay Down

There is far more dynamism among the bottom five, with only Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) and Tractor Supply (TSCO) remaining on the list from last quarter.

Both Shopify (SHOP) and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) rallied significantly over the past three months. Coupled with my incremental buys in the first half of the year, both positions are now down by less than 6% YTD.

Veeva Systems (VEEV) has staged an even more impressive turnaround.

After hovering in deep negative territory for most of the year (peaking at a YTD loss of over 30%), it has completely reversed course and is now delivering a 31% gain!

This shift highlights the heightened short-term volatility of US equities, driven largely by prevalent trading activities in the markets.

As long-term investors, we can comfortably tune out this noise, or better yet, take advantage of it. Stay focused on the underlying operational performance, and over time, the market will price the business accordingly.

Now, for the three new entries where there’s nothing structurally wrong with their operations, but all are weighed down by uncertainty.

iFAST (SGX: AIY): Can iGB be the Next Growth Driver?

Despite strong 2Q 2026 operational performance across all regions, the market is still struggling to digest iFAST’s forward P/E ratio above 20x.

Given its current business momentum, this hesitation doesn’t make sense to me.

The market doesn’t care what I think and has its own timeline. Maybe investors are simply waiting for clearer evidence that iFAST Global Bank can become the next core growth driver before committing fresh capital.

For now, I remain confident that iFAST will generate significantly larger revenues and profits five years down the road, making the current share price relatively attractive.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust (SGX: J69U): RTS Overshadows Stable DPU Payouts

Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) is one of the few S-REITs that continues to deliver remarkably stable distribution per unit (DPU).

With the exception of the year when COVID-19 struck, its annual DPU has stayed above S$0.12 since FY 2018. That’s right, it managed to maintain that baseline even when interest rates spiked from 2022 to 2023 and remained elevated thereafter.

What continues to weigh on the share price is the upcoming operation of the Johor Bahru–Singapore Rapid Transit System (RTS) link in early 2027.

Until FCT demonstrates over the next year or two that the increased convenience of traveling to JB has minimal long-term impact on its suburban mall footfall and leases, the market is likely to stay cautious about its outlook.

I am aligned with management’s view that the net impact will be muted, and will continue to hold on to my existing stake.

Food Empire Holdings (SGX: F03): Russia Debacle Weighs

Food Empire only entered this list following last week’s debacle where Moscow placed Nestlé’s Russian assets under temporary state administration.

You can read my earlier post to find out my take on the situation and why I am absolutely doing nothing about it. That said, don’t expect market sentiment to turn until Food Empire continues to show improved results over the next few quarters.

The Final Quarter: Getting Ready to Trim

The final round of quarterly reporting for this year is just around the corner.

I expect solid operational momentum from most of my holdings, even as management teams naturally remain cautious given the uncertain macroeconomic backdrop.

As the market digests these upcoming results, short-term price reactions will remain unpredictable as ever.

Regardless of where sentiment swings, my play for the final quarter is straightforward:

• Prices pull back: I will sit tight and hold my current positions.
• Market exuberance continues: I will take the opportunity to trim across my holdings to top up my cash bucket for the next three years.

Looking forward to the grand finale of 2026!

Related Posts

Food Empire Plunged 10%: Why I’m Doing Nothing

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iFAST 2Q 2026: 3 Takeaways Behind the Record S$36.13B AUA

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