Taking a S$10.6k Loss on The Trade Desk & Reallocating to Intuitive, Microsoft, and Netflix

UPDATE (March 23, 2026): I’ve been experimenting with new ways to share my investment thesis beyond just long-form writing. I ran this specific “TTD Autopsy” through an AI audio engine to see how it would hold up under a third-party dissection.

You can listen to the 20-minute podcast discussion here:

Read my thoughts on this new experiment here: https://thefatinvestor.blog/2026/03/23/my-first-podcast-see-how-ai-hosts-dissect-my-s10-6k-ttd-loss/

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I finally fully divested my stake in The Trade Desk (TTD) last Thursday, realising a loss of S$10.6k (-68%) on this final tranche.

While it’s one of my most significant losses recently, I only felt a “pinch” when hitting the sell button. The heaviest emotional damage was already felt last year; by now, it was simply mechanical.

Why now?

The “last straw” was a report that a third-party consultant for Publicis (PUBGY) found TTD in violation of its service agreement. While TTD refuted the claims, it added a red flag to a pile that already included a plunge in FY2026 sales guidance (down to 10% YOY) and frequent executive turnover.

To be clear, I’m not afraid to hold or even “average down” on losers when the thesis holds. My conviction in Shopify (SHOP) and AEM (SGX: AWX) was rewarded when they overcame their temporary setbacks.

But with TTD, I no longer see the clarity needed for a turnaround. I’m not saying they can’t recover – I’m just not sensing it.

With better opportunities currently “on sale,” reallocating what remains feels like the most logical move.

Intuitive: The Robotic Surgery Leader

Intuitive reported a strong FY 2025, with revenue breaching the US$10 billion mark (20.5% YOY) for the first time. Consequently, its non-GAAP EPS grew by 22% YOY to hit US$8.00.

The growth engine was reignited by the phased rollout of the da Vinci 5, which saw placements more than double in 2025 (870 systems vs 362 in 2024). Demand remained robust as the system launched in Europe, the U.K., and Japan in the second half of the year.

Despite the record year, ISRG’s stock price has retraced more than 15% this year. This is largely a “valuation reset” due to management’s conservative 2026 outlook:

• Procedure Growth: Guided at 13–15% for 2026, a deceleration from the 18% achieved in 2025.
  
• Margin Pressure: Non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 67–68%, dampened by a 1.2% tariff headwind.

For a stock trading at a high premium, any “breather” in the growth rate triggers a re-rating. However, the long-term thesis remains intact through several multi-year tailwinds:

Future Growth Drivers

• Bariatric Resilience: The “GLP-1 threat” has pivoted into a synergy. While solo bariatric growth slowed, clinical data now suggests these drugs act as a “pre-op” tool, helping high-BMI patients lose enough initial weight to safely qualify for robotic surgery.
  
• Ambulatory Surgery Centers (ASCs): This is like going for “Day Surgery” in Singapore but in the US, they don’t do it in hospitals but at ASC. Intuitive is capturing increased trend of short surgery by placing more systems in ASCs, often using their “extended use” programs for older XI systems to lower the barrier to entry.
  
• Cardiac Expansion: In January 2026, the FDA cleared the da Vinci 5 for a broad range of cardiac procedures, including mitral valve repair. This re-opens a massive addressable market that was previously dominated by “open-chest” surgery.
  
• Outside the U.S. (OUS) Momentum: From just 17% in 2005, OUS now contributes roughly 35% of sales. With 23% OUS procedure growth in 2025, the international runway is actually longer than the domestic one.

With the recent price drop, ISRG is valued at a forward P/E of roughly 47x–50x (trailing ~60x). While optically high, this is significantly lower than its historical average.

With 84% of revenue being recurring, Intuitive is not just a hardware story; it’s a high-margin utility.

If execution on the da Vinci 5 stays on track, the market will likely reward this “temporary speed bump” with a higher premium once growth re-accelerates in 2027.

Microsoft: The Enterprise and Cloud Leader

Microsoft needs no introduction. It is the backbone of the corporate world, yet it currently finds itself in a rare “valuation correction.”

For the first half of FY2026 (ended December 31, 2025), Microsoft reported a massive US$159 billion in revenue (up 17% YOY). Its non-GAAP EPS for the half-year was bolstered by a strong Q2, where earnings hit US$4.14 (up 24% YOY).

Despite these “beat and raise” results, the market’s reaction has been cold. After reaching a high of nearly $560 in late 2025, the stock has slid more than 20% year-to-date, largely due to uncertainty surrounding its AI venture:

• The $110 Billion Bill: Microsoft’s capital expenditure is projected to cross the US$110 billion mark for FY 2026. Investors are spooked by these “AI arms race” costs.
  
• The OpenAI Friction: With OpenAI seeking partnerships with Amazon, and competitors like Gemini, Claude, and Grok eating into ChatGPT’s mindshare, the “exclusive” AI advantage Microsoft held a year ago is being questioned.

Why I Am Increasing My Stake

Regular readers might recall that I don’t use Microsoft’s products and services by choice. I am firmly in the Apple ecosystem with my iPhone and Mac, and I rely on the Google suite for my daily productivity.

As such, I have always been lukewarm toward Microsoft as a consumer.

However, as an investor, there is no doubt that Microsoft is the undisputed leader in the enterprise segment. For example, during my two decades as an educator, I had no choice but to use its Office Suite.

Moreover, the demand for its Intelligent Cloud is staggering. Segment revenue recently crossed $50 billion per quarter for the first time. Even more impressive is Azure, which grew by a robust 39% in the last quarter despite its massive scale.

Not using Microsoft is a personal preference, but when a dominant market leader goes “on sale” at a Forward P/E of roughly 23x (well below its 5-year average), there is no reason for me to reject the offer.

Netflix: The King of Content

I re-entered Netflix in January while it was shrouded in uncertainty during the bidding battle with Paramount Skydance (PKSY) over Warner Bros Discovery (WBD).

Ultimately, Netflix “lost” the bid, but in my view, they won the war.

By walking away from an optional — and arguably unnecessary — acquisition, Netflix secures a US$2.8 billion termination fee without saddling its balance sheet with a massive US$60 billion debt load.

This allows management to refocus on what they do best: producing “must-watch” content and scaling their high-margin ad tier.

Still “Cheap” Despite the Rebound

Netflix’s stock has recovered from its recent lows of US$75 to trade around US$90 now, but the valuation remains compelling for long-term believers:

• P/E Ratio: At 36x, it is trading at a significant discount to its 5-year historical average.
  
• Forward Metrics: With consensus earnings estimates exceeding US$3, the forward P/E sits at 30x, giving it a PEG ratio of just 1.3x.

It’s not dirt cheap but for me, it’s an attractive price to pay for a dominant market leader with an accelerating ad-revenue engine.

Small Moves, Big Picture

There isn’t much left after losing nearly 70% of my TTD investment, so these purchases won’t have a material impact on my overall portfolio performance today. However, these small buys add up over the years, and the cumulative effect becomes much more visible in time.

At the time of writing, these positions remain small (ISRG: 1.8%, MSFT & NFLX: 1.1%), but one day, they might just become the next AEM, Alphabet (GOOGL), or Shopify of my portfolio.